The following are suggested documentation that may be needed to describe the Project Traffic Forecasting process:

  • Project Plan: A document outlining the scope of the project, objectives, timeline, and resources required.
  • Data Sources and Methodology: A document that outlines the data sources used for the project and the methodology used to forecast traffic.
  • Data Collection Plan: A plan for collecting and organizing the necessary data for the project, including maps showing the location and type of data collected.
  • Forecasting Method: A document outlining the selected forecasting method including any assumptions and limitations. The forecasting method may or may not involve a travel demand model.
  • Forecasting Development: Detailed documentation of the forecasting development and results. Where appropriate, include descriptions of model refinement and suitability checks to make the model match the observed traffic conditions within the study area. The forecasting results should include, but not be limited to: existing AADT; future projections for opening year, interim year, and design year in terms of link level AADT; design hour volume (DHV); turning movement volumes; and design traffic factors, such as Standard K Factor, Directional (D) factor, and Truck (T) factor.
  • Project Traffic Forecasting Documentation: Detailed technical documentation of traffic data collection and analysis, model development, and traffic projections process for the project.

It is important to identify document requirements and deliverables early in the project and to ensure that stakeholders are aware of what to expect in terms of project deliverables and timelines. Typical document deliverables and outlines for traffic forecasting are recommended, as follows:

  • Project Plan
  • Introduction: A brief overview of the project and its objectives.
  • Scope and Objectives: Detailed description of the project scope and objectives, including any assumptions or limitations.
  • Timeline and Schedule: A detailed timeline for the project, including major milestones and deliverables.
  • Resources: Description of the resources required for the project, including personnel, equipment, and funding.
  • Data Sources and Methodology
  • Introduction: Brief overview of the data sources and methodology used for the project.
  • Data Sources: Description of the data sources used for the project, including any limitations or challenges associated with those sources.
  • Data Collection Plan: A detailed plan for collecting and organizing the necessary data for the project.
  • Forecasting Methodology: A description of the methodology used for traffic forecasting, including any assumptions or limitations, and quality checks performed to ensure the forecasting is reliable.
  • Forecasting Method
  • Introduction: A brief overview of the forecasting models, if used for the project.
  • Model Development: A detailed description of the development of the forecasting models, including any programming code or software used.
  • Model Validation: A description of the accuracy testing and validation of the forecasting models. May include accuracy testing results.
  • Trends Analysis: A description of trends analysis performed using historical traffic or demographic data where appropriate.
  • Assumptions and Limitations: Identification of any assumptions or limitations associated with the forecasting models.
  • Forecasting Development
  • Introduction: A brief overview of the forecasting development and results.
  • Development and Results: A detailed report on the traffic forecasting development and results, including any accuracy metrics and recommendations for transportation planning.
  • Implications: A description of the implications of the forecasting results for traffic analysis and following phases of the project.
  • Project Traffic Forecasting Documentation
  • A Technical Memorandum including the items described above. For large and complex projects that involve multiple improvement alternatives, it may be necessary to prepare a separate Project Traffic Forecasting Memorandum that can be incorporated by reference into the final project report. The Project Traffic Forecasting Memorandum should include data sources, forecasting process, proposed alternatives, and traffic forecasts for each analyzed alternative.