When scoping for Project Traffic Forecasting, it is important to consider a wide range of factors to ensure that the project is properly focused, appropriately resourced, and can achieve its intended outcomes. The following factors should be considered.

Project Purpose and Need

The purpose and need of a project are initially developed from transportation planning documents or processes such as Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) update, planning studies, and the Efficient Transportation Decision Making (ETDM) screening process. The purpose defines the transportation issues to be solved and outlines the goals of the project. The need arises from roadway deficiencies, issues, and/or concerns that currently exist or are expected to occur and serves as the foundation for developing and evaluating alternatives.

Project Limits

The project limits refer to the geographic extent of the study area, which can be defined by the physical boundaries of the roadway elements (segments, intersections, or interchanges) or by other factors, such as land use patterns or development areas. The geographical coverage area should be large enough to include all roadway segments that are anticipated to be influenced by the project. Defining the project limits helps focus the project on the most relevant areas and issues, and establishes the data collection requirements, forecasting scope, and expected outcomes of the project.

Data Requirements

The data that is needed to conduct the traffic forecasting should be identified, and a data collection plan should be developed considering all existing and expected multimodal modes of transportation within the project limits to support the project’s purpose and need. The data may include historical and existing traffic data, demographic information, land use data, and other relevant data on planned development and transportation projects.

Forecasting Methods

The appropriate forecasting methods should be identified based on the project scope, availability of traffic forecasting models, data requirements, and stakeholder needs. This may involve forecasting with or without travel demand models, depending on the location and specific requirements of the project.

Project Plan

A project plan should be developed to outline the specific tasks, timelines, and resources needed to complete the project on schedule and within budget. This may include data collection and analysis, model refinement, forecasting development, staffing requirements, stakeholder coordination, documentation, and review time.

Quality Control and Review Processes

Processes for quality control and review of the traffic forecasting should be established, to ensure that the forecasting results are checked and certified for accuracy. This approach will help identify issues and their resolutions early in the process and consequently avoid delays.

By considering these factors, the Project Traffic Forecasting can be effectively scoped and used to develop design requirements and evaluate the operational analyses measures of effectiveness to ensure that the scope is aligned with the goals and objectives of the project.